Slide
Centre Interdisciplinaire
de Recherche et d’Innovation
en Cybersécurité et Société
de Recherche et d’Innovation
en Cybersécurité et Société
1.
Parent, G.; Guay, J. -P.; Knight, R. A.
An assessment of long-term risk of recidivism by adult sex offenders: One size doesn't fit all Journal Article
In: Criminal Justice and Behavior, vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 188–209, 2011, ISSN: 15523594 (ISSN).
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: actuarial instruments, long term, recidivism, Sexual offenders
@article{parent_assessment_2011,
title = {An assessment of long-term risk of recidivism by adult sex offenders: One size doesn't fit all},
author = {G. Parent and J. -P. Guay and R. A. Knight},
url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-78650978843&doi=10.1177%2f0093854810388238&partnerID=40&md5=b7135ade0caf63027cd811913c86c21a},
doi = {10.1177/0093854810388238},
issn = {15523594 (ISSN)},
year = {2011},
date = {2011-01-01},
journal = {Criminal Justice and Behavior},
volume = {38},
number = {2},
pages = {188–209},
abstract = {Numerous instruments are available to clinicians for evaluating sex offenders' reoffense risk. Although they have demonstrated effectiveness in predicting recidivism significantly better than unstructured clinical evaluation, little is known about their predictive accuracy in subgroups of sexual offenders or in the long term. This study was undertaken to evaluate the predictive accuracy of nine instruments (VRAG, SORAG, RRASOR, Static-99, Static-2002, RM2000, MnSOST-R, SVR-20, PCL-R) among three groups of sexual offenders across a 15-year follow-up period. The results indicate that these instruments yielded marginal to modest predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism. A more detailed study of aggressor subgroups indicated that in both the short and the long term, these instruments were more effective at predicting the sexual recidivism of child molesters and the violent and nonviolent recidivism of rapists. Finally, although mixed offenders sexually reoffend more often and more rapidly than do rapists or child molesters, firm conclusions cannot be drawn because of the small number of mixed offenders in the sample. © 2011 International Association for Correctional and Forensic Psychology.},
keywords = {actuarial instruments, long term, recidivism, Sexual offenders},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Numerous instruments are available to clinicians for evaluating sex offenders' reoffense risk. Although they have demonstrated effectiveness in predicting recidivism significantly better than unstructured clinical evaluation, little is known about their predictive accuracy in subgroups of sexual offenders or in the long term. This study was undertaken to evaluate the predictive accuracy of nine instruments (VRAG, SORAG, RRASOR, Static-99, Static-2002, RM2000, MnSOST-R, SVR-20, PCL-R) among three groups of sexual offenders across a 15-year follow-up period. The results indicate that these instruments yielded marginal to modest predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism. A more detailed study of aggressor subgroups indicated that in both the short and the long term, these instruments were more effective at predicting the sexual recidivism of child molesters and the violent and nonviolent recidivism of rapists. Finally, although mixed offenders sexually reoffend more often and more rapidly than do rapists or child molesters, firm conclusions cannot be drawn because of the small number of mixed offenders in the sample. © 2011 International Association for Correctional and Forensic Psychology.
2.
Parent, G.; Guay, J. -P.; Knight, R. A.
In: Revue europeenne de psychologie appliquee, vol. 59, no. 4, pp. 265–277, 2009, ISSN: 11629088 (ISSN), (Publisher: Elsevier Masson SAS).
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Classification and regression trees, Recidivism prediction, Sexual offenders
@article{parent_contribution_2009,
title = {Contribution of regression tree approach in the prediction of recidivism in adult sexual offenders [La contribution des arbres de classification et de régression dans la prédiction de la récidive chez les délinquants sexuels adultes]},
author = {G. Parent and J. -P. Guay and R. A. Knight},
url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-71249095626&doi=10.1016%2fj.erap.2009.08.001&partnerID=40&md5=d1c3075d2b9185c88c2a1892eb48d07f},
doi = {10.1016/j.erap.2009.08.001},
issn = {11629088 (ISSN)},
year = {2009},
date = {2009-01-01},
journal = {Revue europeenne de psychologie appliquee},
volume = {59},
number = {4},
pages = {265–277},
abstract = {Clinicians have access to several risk assessment instruments to evaluate the risk or recidivism in sexual offenders. Nevertheless, we seem to have attained a ceiling in the predictive validity of these instruments with the traditional techniques of items agglomeration. In this study, we offer a different combination of predictors with the classification and regression trees, and it, by taking into account the type of sexual offenders. The classification trees are constructed from predictors contained in seven actuarial instruments (VRAG, SORAG, RRASOR, STATIC-99, STATIC-2002, RM2000, MnSOST-R). In general, the classification trees have a higher predictive accuracy than the actuarial instruments and point out that it's not the same predictors that should be considered according to the type of offenders and the type of recidivism. Furthermore, classification trees identify correctly more recidivists than the best actuarial tool. In spite of the contribution of this approach, other types of predictors should also be considered to augment predictive accuracy: dynamic predictors, protective predictors as well as measurements based on theories like those on attachment styles (Marshall, D. R., Barbaree, H. E., 1990. An integrated theory of the etiology of sexual offending. In: Marshall, W. L., Laws, D. R. L., Barbaree, H.E. (Eds.), Handbook of sexual assault. New York: Plenum Press, pp. 257-275.) and cognitive distortions (Ward, T., Keenan, T., Hudson, S. M., 2000. Understanding cognitive, affective, and intimacy deficits in sexual offenders: a developmental perspective. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 5, 41-62.). © 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.},
note = {Publisher: Elsevier Masson SAS},
keywords = {Classification and regression trees, Recidivism prediction, Sexual offenders},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Clinicians have access to several risk assessment instruments to evaluate the risk or recidivism in sexual offenders. Nevertheless, we seem to have attained a ceiling in the predictive validity of these instruments with the traditional techniques of items agglomeration. In this study, we offer a different combination of predictors with the classification and regression trees, and it, by taking into account the type of sexual offenders. The classification trees are constructed from predictors contained in seven actuarial instruments (VRAG, SORAG, RRASOR, STATIC-99, STATIC-2002, RM2000, MnSOST-R). In general, the classification trees have a higher predictive accuracy than the actuarial instruments and point out that it's not the same predictors that should be considered according to the type of offenders and the type of recidivism. Furthermore, classification trees identify correctly more recidivists than the best actuarial tool. In spite of the contribution of this approach, other types of predictors should also be considered to augment predictive accuracy: dynamic predictors, protective predictors as well as measurements based on theories like those on attachment styles (Marshall, D. R., Barbaree, H. E., 1990. An integrated theory of the etiology of sexual offending. In: Marshall, W. L., Laws, D. R. L., Barbaree, H.E. (Eds.), Handbook of sexual assault. New York: Plenum Press, pp. 257-275.) and cognitive distortions (Ward, T., Keenan, T., Hudson, S. M., 2000. Understanding cognitive, affective, and intimacy deficits in sexual offenders: a developmental perspective. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 5, 41-62.). © 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.